Daily Probability Chart
How Far Along Are You?

Weeks: Days:

Maternal Age:
Number of Previous Miscarriages:
Number of Previous Live Births:
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Reassure Me
Give it to me Straight

About the Miscarriage Reassurer

Nervous about the possibility of a miscarriage? The fear of miscarriage is one of the biggest fears women have during pregnancy. We all know someone whose had it happen to them, or maybe it's happened to us. Yet, while miscarriage is common, it is not the likely outcome. Once a woman becomes pregnant the pregnancy is more likely to result in a baby than to end in a miscarriage. The Miscarriage Odds Reassurer is designed to remind us of this fact, and ease our fears.

The Miscarriage Odds Reassurer calculates the probability of miscarriage given how far a woman is in her pregnancy. Rather than simply give the probability of a miscarriage, however, the reassurer can also tell you how likely her pregnancy is to continue. The reassurer will let you know how much lower the probability of miscarriage is now than when your pregnancy first started, and how much lower yet they'll still be in the next couple of days. The reassurer can even account for added risk factors like maternal age, weight and number of previous miscarriages.

Take the Probabilities With You
Want to bookmark the Miscarriage Reassurer with all it's data so you don't have to keep re-entering your maternal info it day after day?
Click here to get a paramterized URL based on due date, so the weeks and days paramaters will update automatically when you refresh the page each day. Or click here to get a paramterized URL based on your current progress which will keep the weeks and days parameters the same every time you visit the page.

About the model Miscarriage is generally recognized as pregnancy loss before 20 weeks gestation. This page calculates the cumulative probability of pregnancy loss from a given point in pregnancy through 20 weeks gestation. Beyond 20 weeks gestation pregnancy most often ends in a live birth, and rarely in still birth. Thus, we refer to the probability of not miscarring as the probability of birth.

The underlying model for this site is derived using meta analysis of the following peer reviewed papers on miscarriage. The model can be be used without additional input, or can be adjusted with any combination of maternal age, height/weight (BMI), number of previous miscarriages and number of previous births inputs. Each variable is modeled separately, assumed to be independent and assumed to affect the probability of miscarriage uniformly over time. These assumptions are likely overly strong, as there are likely counfounding variables, but is the most reasonable approximation in the absense of additional data.

Results from multiple studies are weighted differently depending on the number of participents included in the study, demographics of the study participents and study methodology.

Model Update 2/25/17: In an effort to give you the most accurate information possible, we incorporated several additional, large scale studies into our model: Avalos et al [4] and Mukharjee et al [5]. These new studies contain over 50,000 participents combined. Consequently, the estimated probability of miscarriaged associated with many gestational ages have changed, some significantly, and some increased. The largest differences are between 6 and 9 weeks gestation. Please feel free to contact me with any questions about how the updated model was derived or how the updated model differs from the previous one.

I know that early pregnancy can be a time of heightened anxiety, and seeing an increased probability of miscarriage than one is used to may cause alarm. Please remember that the probability of miscarriage is still low, and your pregnancy is still more likely to end with a birth than in miscarriage.


This website is intended for informational & entertainment purposes only. This website is not intended to be considered medical advice.

Love Numbers? You may also be interested in the Daily Miscarriage Probability Chart, which can present the daily odds of miscarriage (or the odds of not miscarrying) as either a table or a graph.

Obviously anything can happen, and knowing the chances of a miscarriage are smaller than the chances of a happy ending brings little comfort to those it happens to. My deepest condolences to anyone whose ever suffered a loss. This app is dedicated to a dear friend whose had more than her fair share of bad luck.

Pregnant? You may enjoy our other pregnancy apps like the personalized week by week calander. When you are a little further along in your pregnancy, be sure to check out the Labor Probability Calculator and Labor Probability Chart.

Wanting to become pregnant? Our Time to Conception Calculator can estimate how long it may take.

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